I

THERE is in all history no better illustration of the advantage, to all concerned, of free and unrestricted trade over a large area of country than that presented by the growth in population and in wealth of the United States within the last century, and especially within the last fifty years. Including the territory west of the Mississippi River, which barely one hundred years ago was foreign soil, and Alaska, which less than fifty years ago was foreign soil, the United States covers an area of 3,500,000 square miles, of which 500,000 square miles are in Alaska. At the beginning of the nineteenth century it contained a population of 5,300,000, which had grown in the first fifty years to upwards of 23,000,000, and at the end of the century to upwards of 75,000,000, and which now numbers about 92,000,000.

For the first fifty years of the century the increase in population and in wealth was comparatively slow, for the reason that transportation of heavy freights for any great distance had to be carried on almost entirely by water. Transportation by teams, which, before the introduction of the railway system, was the only means of inland transportation, was too expensive to admit of the profitable cultivation of farms or of the building up of manufacturing enterprises in places even a little remote from the watercourses. It is probably fair to say that a team of horses, or pair of oxen, could not move

more than one ton of freight over the average country road of a century ago a greater distance than twenty miles in one day. If the team were to make its return journey in half the time, it would involve a cost of transportation of a day and a half for a man and team. At present, the cost of the team to do this work would be about $5 a day, or $7.50 for the day and a half; in the olden time it could probably have been done for, say, $4.50. Reckoning 33 bushels of grain to the ton, that would mean that it would cost 14 cents a bushel to move grain to the watercourse from a farm twenty miles away. Mr. W. C. Brown, president of the New York Central Railroad, has stated that the cost of transportation by teams from Buffalo to the Hudson River previous to the opening of the Erie Canal was $100 per ton, which was reduced to $11 a ton on the opening of the Canal, or, say, 34 cents per bushel on grain. Hence the cost of moving grain from a farm twenty miles from Buffalo to the Hudson River amounted to nearly 50 cents a bushel, which was probably all that the grain was worth at that time at the river point.

But with the introduction of the railway system this condition of things was entirely changed. Heavy freights are now carried one thousand miles by rail at the cost of twenty miles by teams. The railroads have been the pioneers and chief factor in the development of the resources of the country, and unless hampered by restrictive or hostile legislation, they will continue

some.

The area of trade in the United States is in remarkable contrast to those of the different countries of Europe. For illustration: Great Britain has an area of 121,000 square miles, which is equal to that of the New England States, New York, and New Jersey. The area of France is equal to that of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, and Michigan. Germany has an area equal to that of North and South Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana, and Illinois. The area of Spain is equal to that of Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi; of Italy, to that of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri; of AustriaHungary, to that of Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Sweden and Norway together have about the same area as Arizona, Utah, and Montana; Portugal is something less in area than Oklahoma. The Netherlands, Belgium,Switzerland, and Greece have together an area of about 66,000 square miles-somewhat smaller than that of either Kansas or Nebraska.

These fourteen different countries occupy an aggregate of about 1,500,000 square miles, or about one-half the territory of the United States, exclusive of Alaska; and the remainder of the territory in the United States, including Alaska, is equal to the area of European Russia.

All of these countries, with the sole exception of Great Britain, are hemmed in by hostile tariff walls, each against the others, which limit their trade largely to the territory occupied by each. In addition, they are animated largely by feelings of racial hostility toward one another. They support large standing armies for protection against their neighbors, involving burdensome taxes, and have a system of compulsory mili

From all these hindrances to trade the United States has been and is still free. The citizens of one state are free to travel and to trade in every other state, and friendship and friendly interests prevail. This absolute freedom of intercourse, this freedom from military service, and these lighter taxes, together with the opportunity for acquiring land and homes wherever one may see fit to settle, have invited immigration from all parts of the world; and for the last fifty years immigrants have been coming in increasing numbers. These immigrants have left behind them their racial feeling of hostility, they have ceased to be Germans, or Austrians, or Swedes, or Norwegians, and have become loyal and enthusiastic Americans. Were the territory of the United States divided into separate nationalities, as in Europe, there would have been no such rapid growth of cities, no Boston, or New York, or Philadelphia, no Baltimore, or Pittsburg, or Chicago, as we know them to-day. The growth and development of these centres of commerce and industry is wholly due to the absolute freedom of intercourse and community of interest over the enormous area of 3,500,000 square miles.

Assuming that the spirit of private enterprise and the development of the railway system are not to be checked by unwise legislation, what is likely to be the population of the United States in the century to come? The average increase for the nineteenth century was three per cent a year. For the last twenty years the growth was twenty per cent every ten years, or two per cent a year; about fifteen per cent of which was due to reproduction, and five per cent to immigration. It seems to me that for the next fifty years the population will increase in like ratio, in which case we shall have

and assuming thereafter for the next forty years an increase of one and one half per cent a year, or fifteen per cent every ten years, we should find ourselves at the end of the century with a population of 400,000,000.

This would give us in 1960 an average population of 75 persons to the square mile, not including Alaska, and in the year 2000 about 140 to the square mile. Considering that Germany, France, and England have now a population of 300 to the square mile, that Massachusetts already has a population of 367 per square mile, and that the states of New York and Pennsylvania have about 150 persons per square mile, there would seem to be plenty of room for even the larger population. The chief concern would be how they should be fed and wherewithal they should be clothed.

II

Turning now to the development of our manufacturing enterprises, it is seen that the growth in this direction has been no less remarkable than the growth in population. The Census Reports do not give details of manu

facturing enterprises further back than the Census of 1850. At that time, 1850, the value of products was $1,000,000,000; there were 123,000 manufacturing establishments, having a capital of $533,000,000, and wage-earners numbering 957,000. In 1900, the value of products was $13,000,000,000; the number of establishments had grown to 512,000, with a capital of $9,831,000,000 and wage-earners numbering 5,314,000.

Manufacturing enterprises, which at the beginning, and indeed until the end of the first half of the century, were almost wholly confined to the eastern section of the country, have moved westward, along with the march of population, until at the present time the capital invested and the number of men employed are nearly or quite as large in some of the western agricultural states as in the older states of the East, where manufacturing is, and always has been, the chief occupation. Having so large an area to trade over, without let or hindrance of any kind, manufacturers have been enabled to specialize their products, and to produce more cheaply than if they were confined to a limited trade-area, as are most of the countries in Europe to which I have already referred.

As showing the growth of manufacturing enterprises in the West, take for illustration the following statistics from the Census Report,

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The number of persons engaged in agricultural pursuits in the State of Illinois in 1900 was 462,781, as compared with 395,110 wage-earners in manufacturing establishments.

There is no reason to suppose that this tendency of manufacturing enterprises to draw nearer to the centres of population in the western countries will not continue. Gradually around these industries in the West will grow up a class of mechanics equal to those that are found in the eastern states, and the western establishments will grow with their growth and strengthen with their strength, and competition with the eastern manufacturer will be keener and keener as the years go by. And if the time shall come when, added to this natural competition, transportation shall be based upon mileage, and freight carried 2000 miles shall be compelled to pay ten times as much as freight carried 200 miles, the eastern manufacturer will be likely to be absolutely cut off from his customers in the distant West. It is, therefore, not only desirable, but, in my judgment, absolutely essential, that the eastern manufacturers should be able to avail themselves of the possible customers to the north and cast of us with whom we are in such close proximity. Montreal, the Chicago of the Dominion, is but 350 miles from New York, or Boston, or Portland, while Chicago of the United States is 1000 miles away, St. Louis 1200, Omaha and Kansas City

1500.

The Dominion of Canada is entering upon a development closely resembling that of the United States one hundred years ago. Her population at the beginning of the present century was very much the same as that of the United States a century earlier, namely, in 1800. Although the climatic conditions in Canada are less favorable than those in the United States, her railway

development is now assuming large proportions, and it is more than likely that in the next forty years she will grow more rapidly than the United States grew in the forty years from 1810 to 1850. Immigration into the United States from 1820 to 1830 aggregated less for the ten years than 150,000 people, while at the present time there are probably double that number entering Canada every single year.

Her territory lies along that of the United States for nearly 4000 miles. The natural outlet and inlet for exports and imports of the Dominion is through the territory of the United States. Her Atlantic ports of Halifax and St. John are several hundred miles farther from Montreal than either Boston, or New York, or Portland; and in addition to the shorter distance, the greater attractions of the ports would draw the trade of the Dominion to the United States ports, if trade were allowed to flow freely, without the intervention of the tariff wall. The people of the United States would be the very best customers for the varied Canadian products. The people of the United States would be glad to join with the people of Canada in developing this great territory; and, as in the case of the territory of the United States, it could be developed to the mutual advantage of all concerned. That territory in the United States lying west of the Mississippi River, which barely one hundred years ago was a howling wilderness, now contains a contented and prosperous population of more than twenty millions of people, and there almost every day new manufacturing enterprises are being established on an enduring basis.

The free and unrestricted trade which has prevailed over the territory of the United States to the mutual advantage of everybody concerned would be equally beneficial to the territory of

the Dominion if the tariff barrier between the two countries were absolutely removed. Manufacturing enterprises would gradually find their way to the western sections of Canada, just as they have to the western sections of the United States; and all along from Ottawa to the Pacific would be found cities like Milwaukee, St. Paul, Spokane, Denver, Salt Lake City, and Sacramento. And this development would be more rapid if brought about by the united capital and energy of the American people and of the Canadians.

III

The establishment of friendly trade relations with Canada-and by friendly trade relations I mean trade that shall be as free and unrestricted between these two countries as that between the separate states of the United Stateswould lead to friendly social relations, and a bond of union would be woven between the United States, Canada, and the British Empire. The outcome might be an alliance for mutual protection which would have in it great possibilities of good for those immediately concerned, and perhaps for the whole human race.

Such an alliance as I have referred to might come to be of much importance to the United States, if we are to continue to play our rôle of a world power in the affairs of the East. The unfortunate legacy left us by the Spanish War has opened for us a Pandora's box of evils and responsibilities, of which the masses of the people are but very dimly conscious. If any great power in Europe, or in the East, should think the Philippines worth taking, it could appropriate them, for all we could now do to prevent, pretty nearly as easily as Dewey captured Manila. If it is to be the settled policy of the United States to retain possession of

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the Philippine Islands, we must get ourselves in a better position than we are now to hold them; otherwise, we shall be nothing in this connection but a laughing-stock to the world, as in all probability we are now. We must seek alliances with other world powers. We cannot 'go it alone' there. But to be in any position to protect these islands, or to be of value to any European power as an ally, we must have a much more powerful navy than we have now, must have at our command a large fleet of army transports, and must have a much larger army. If we are not prepared to do all of these things, we must find some way to get out of our eastern complications and devote our energies and our resources to home development and home protection.

The people of the United States are ambitious to trade over a large area. If they had part or lot in the trade affairs of the whole of the British Empire, it would be their interest to help maintain the Empire in its integrity. I believe that the beginning of this much-desired end is a trade alliance between the United States and the Dominion of Canada. We have ourselves seen the benefit of free and unrestricted trade over an area of three million square miles. If Canada be joined with us we shall have a trade area of six million square miles. If the British Empire were added, we should have a trading area of fourteen or fifteen million square miles. It is likely, also, that other countries of Europe would be glad to join such an alliance, the beneficial effects of which can, perhaps, be better imagined than described.

In some respects, the question of reciprocity with Canada is more complicated than it was in 1897, when Sir Wilfred Laurier and his Cabinet came to Washington on their mission of re