there is not full conformity to the present provisions, if there is in them instruction out of books other than those authorized, or if the founders, directors, or professors make verbally to their pupils any suggestions adverse to the State, or which favour the interests of another Power, the school will be closed and the teachers punished.

"Ottoman subjects who may wish to open a private school will be equally required to fulfil the same conditions. Foreign subjects who may teach in such schools will be subjected to inquiry as above. Private schools already opened by foreign subjects without the official authorization demanded above will be closed if in six months they do not obtain an Imperial Firman."-(Oct. 12, 1887) 8 Sefer, 1305.

These requirements are, and are intended to be, prohibitory and not regulative, and it will be seen that they are aimed at all native and foreign schools not established by Government. This is certainly a very short-sighted policy, for if an attempt is made to carry it out it will raise a storm in Europe which it will not be easy for Turkey to weather. I believe, however, that the Porte will be wise in time to avoid it.

MATERIAL PROGRESS.

The same policy which appears in the facts mentioned above leads the Turks to oppose foreign enterprise in the country. They might be justified if there was disposable capital in Turkey, but there is not. It must be foreign capital or none. The Government has been negotiating for years with different parties for the construction of railways in Asia Minor. It appreciates the importance of them, and for a moment last summer it was believed that a concession had been given, but at the last moment the opposition prevailed, and, like all other similar projects, it came to nothing. The real obstacle is the fear of foreign influence. The same difficulty stands in the way of the development of the untold mineral wealth of the country, which, if foreign enterprise were admitted, would fill the empty treasury of the State, and bring comfort to a starving population. As it is, every obstacle is thrown in the way even of those enterprises already authorized. It is true that Turkey has had some unfortunate experiences with such men as Baron Hirsch, from whom she claims many millions, and is likely to get nothing, and who is remembered with anything but pleasure by every one who travels over his serpentine railways; but proper care in giving concessions would save them from a repetition of such experiences, and attract honest enterprise.

The Sultan seems to understand the need of such enterprise, for he is constantly issuing orders for the development of the country. The last one contemplates a complete reform of the agriculture of Asia Minor, and the working of mines, &c. It is to be applied first to the province of Broussa. It is a good thought, but without fresh capital and new life it cannot possibly be realized. Any serious attempt to carry it out would only injure what exists already, and yet that province is so rich that, under favourable circumstances, it might bring in as much revenue as comes now from all Asia Minor. In one respect there is real progress there and in some other parts of the empire. There is at least a serious attempt to put an end to the widespread brigandage which has been wasting the country for some years. More has been done in Macedonia than anywhere else, and the people there are full of gratitude.

If this can be done in Macedonia, it can be done anywhere, and it is to be hoped that brigands will soon disappear, even from the environs of Smyrna and Constantinople.

With security for life and property, with railways and with encouragement for the investment of foreign capital, the material progress of Turkey would be rapid, for the people generally are frugal and industrious. If there could be even a temporary settlement of the Eastern Question, if the Sultan could be assured of peace for a term of years, he would probably abandon his present policy and adopt a liberal one; but with a cloud of war always hanging over him he is inclined to trust no one but his Mohammedan subjects. He might almost say that he trusts no one but himself. Still he has won the respect of Europe, and the sincere admiration of those foreigners who have known him best, and if he had a fair chance he would no doubt conduct his home policy in a way to merit the approval of the world.

THE COMING War.

As a faithful chronicler of current thought in Turkey, I am bound to say that war is inevitable, and that it may prove a decided advantage to Turkey, by settling pending questions, and assuring her a period of peace. Personally, I know no more about the probabilities of war than those who still believe that a general European war is too terrible a calamity to happen in this age. I can only say that we in Constantinople see no way of escape from such a war, although it is possible that it may not come this year. No Power can desire this war in itself, but both Russia and France desire what can only be obtained by war.

She has no friends greatest prize in the And there seem to be

Russia is determined to secure Bulgaria and Constantinople. Every Russian you meet assures you of this. She has never made a single step towards the realization of this purpose except in war, and she cannot move in this direction now without war. She is prepared for war, the troops are in place. She has such an ally as never before, ready to give her what even Napoleon refused. She has a plausible pretence for war, and the nation is in favour of war. Why then should she refrain from war? If defeated she will lose no territory and no friends in this part of the world. here to lose. If victorious, she will win the world, and be the greatest Power in the world. chances of success. England might keep the peace by joining the Triple Alliance, and Turkey might aid in the same direction, but neither of them will interfere, it is believed, until after Austria has been crushed and the fate of the East practically decided. In view of these facts and of what we see of Russian movements in Greece and Roumania, we expect a war this year, and we expect to see our fate decided by this war, but we shall remain neutral as long as we can. I believe that this is a fair expression of the most enlightened opinion in Constantinople to-day. I record it, not as a prophecy to enlighten the world, but simply as a fact of interest. In regard to the probable result of the war there is no such general agreement. Some think that the end of the war will see Russia in actual possession of Constantinople; but most of those who believe in her success think that she will content herself with Bulgaria and leave us for her next meal. Others are confident that Russia will be defeated, and that we shall have before us here an era of

peace and prosperity. These speculations are hardly worth recording, but they express the current thought of the day.

For my part I am chiefly anxious that in this great crisis England should do her duty. If she does, let the result of the war be what it may, her honour is safe and her influence in the world is secure. Defeat in a just war is better than selfish or cowardly abstention. The very thought of war is repulsive, but if Russia is allowed to carry out her designs the results for humanity will be a greater calamity than war. Let England do what she can for peace; but if war is to come in spite of her, because Russia thinks it worth while to fight for the empire of the world, I do not see how England can avoid defending her interests. I believe that any Government which allowed Russia to secure Constantinople would be condemned to eternal infamy. This may not be the drift of public opinion in England to-day, but it would be the verdict of history; and if the English democracy once comes to understand the interests involved in this question it will support any Government in defending them. Sooner or later it will fight for Constantinople. It cannot desire war. It will not hasten into it; but when the crisis comes England will not be neutral. If there is any Englishman who believes that she will, I commend to him the study of the position of Prussia during the Crimean War, and especially the correspondence of the Foreign Office, the letters of the Queen, the debates in Parliament at that time. Let him ask himself whether all the indignation, scorn, and coutempt then heaped upon Prussia by Englishmen would not come back with double force upon England herself if she attempted to play the part of Prussia in a struggle involving the liberties of Europe. This is not ancient history, and it is worth studying, even if the crisis does not come this year.

CONSTANTINOPLE, March 888.

AN OLD RESIDENT.

NOTE.

IN the February issue of this REVIEW, in an article entitled "Islam and Christianity," it was stated that the Rev. John Robinson was a "half-breed, his mother having been a Malay convert." Mr. Robinson's son writes us to say that this is a mistake, as Mr. Robinson's mother was a Miss Gordon, daughter of Adam Gordon, of Banffshire, and Mr. Robinson had no Malay blood in his veins. The writer of the article deeply regrets that the mistake should have occurred.—ED. C. R.]

THE OCCUPATION OF LAND.*

I

CONSIDER it a very signal honour that I should have been invited to address you this evening. I understand that you are about to start in this club an association which shall meet some four times or more in the course of the year and discuss economic questions which may be suggested amongst the members. You have done me the very great honour of asking that I should preside at this your opening dinner, and should initiate a discussion by delivering an address to you. Quite apart from my personal gratification at this invitation, I must confess to a feeling of pleasure at what some might regard as the resurrection of political economy. I have no doubt that this club (of which I have not the honour of being a member) prides itself on being somewhat to the front in all public affairs. I believe its members are amongst the most advanced of thinkers in matters of politics, and no doubt in other matters of thought of this generation. It is pleasant to think that in such a society Political Economy is treated with respect.

Very hard things have been said of late about political economy. It has been flouted at on many platforms and in almost every newspaper: the irresponsible guides of opinion, who teach us day by day, morning and evening, what we should believe and what we should think, have not hesitated to join with the rest, and to put themselves to the front in flouting at political economy. I belonged to the brotherhood for some years of my life, and I know how easy it is to go with the stream; it relieves us so much of the trouble of thinking. And it must be admitted that very high authority can be vouched to justify the line so generally taken. One very important person went down a few years ago to the country-I think it was to Glasgow-and sneered at those who, he said, "kept mumbling over the dry bones of political economy; and another equally important

An Address delivered at the National Liberal Club, April 11, 1888. VOL. LIII.

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personage is supposed to have banished political economy to Jupiter and Saturn. It is remarkable, by the way, and perhaps worthy of attention, that so much regard should have been paid to one of these utterances and so little to the other. Very few people seem to have taken seriously to heart the sneer at those who "mumbled over the dry bones of political economy," but every one has done his best to magnify the somewhat random phrase of Mr. Gladstone when men suppose he talked of political economy being banished to Jupiter and Saturn. But, in truth. Mr. Gladstone never said anything of the kind. Mr. Gladstone, I believe, has some regard to political economy, and his thought, and that of his great rival, were very much the same-namely, that political economy has its sphere, which touches and somewhat overlaps the sphere of politics, but is not coincident with it; and it is idle on the part of those who are engaged in political life, and have to attend to the actual work of political action, to think that they can adopt in their simplicity, and without any qualification, what appears to be the dogma or teaching of political economy; and it is still more idle on the part of professors of political economy to think that their investigations can be used, not as guides, not as indications of what may be done and what may be avoided, but as absolute directions, to be followed implicitly and without qualification, in the actual business and work of life. Political economy and politics are to some extent, no doubt, overlapping one another, but they have their distinct spheres; and the work of the political economist, as compared with that of the politician, seems to be not unlike the labour of the physiologist as compared with that of the physician. The physiologist is engaged in the study of the laws and processes of life; his investigations are studied, adopted, used by the physician; but the physician knows full well that the lessons he learns from the physiologist, although they may guide his action, cannot absolutely determine it, when he has to deal with any concrete case. It does not in the least follow that the work of the physiologist is in vain. Far from it. Peril awaits the physician who neglects it, and peril awaits the politician who neglects political economy. Our analysis of economic life is as valuable, as useful, as real, as important, as the investigations of the natural life of living creatures we may err, as all men err, in sundry portions of our examinations; we may have thought that we have established some conclusions which have been proved to be imperfectly apprehended; but at least we are able to indicate the broad lines of the nutrition of the economic body; we are able to show how, by certain processes atrophy, and by certain other processes hypertrophy, of the parts of the economic community are produced, and such teaching, if it cannot be immediately carried into practice, is most valuable in guiding and illuminating the action of practical politicians.