The small farmer will be the joker of Irish politics. According to the last census over 70 per cent. of the holdings are less than 30 acres in extent. Many of these small holdings are uneconomic and cannot support a family, even on the bare subsistence level. In the past, America absorbed the surplus population of these farms. The old people who remained behind received large remittances from America, and so Ireland benefited in a double sense. This migration is now discouraged both in America and Ireland, and the large number of idle unprovided young men is an increasingly serious problem. Even if confidence were fully restored, it would be many years before industries sufficient to absorb all this surplus population could be established. There is little doubt that the Irish leaders would gladly remove to-day the ban they placed on emigration in their less responsible days.

The spirit of cupidity, combined with inertia, which affects the farmer class, also dominates the labourers. Poorly paid, intellectually backward, and lacking the useful influences which a rural aristocracy can bring to bear, they have fallen an easy prey to the communistic gospel. Organised labour in Ireland to-day is avowedly Marxian. Its goal is a' Workers' Republic.' These very words appear almost every week in the columns of their organ, The Voice of Labour-though exactly what it means their leaders have never explained. Their programme offers the repudiation of rents and annuities as a bribe to the smaller farmers, and there is little doubt that for the present the bribe will be effective. Their organisation is far superior to that of the farmers, and in many districts they have correctly taken the measure of their adversary. They have seized creameries and tried to work them under the red flag. They held them as long as there was any liquid stock to sell, and having squeezed them dry handed them back empty to their rightful owners. In cases of labour disputes they have forbidden, and by forceful picketing prevented, farmers from obtaining food and raiment. They have driven cattle, seized land, broken machinery. In some cases their methods have shown the utmost audacity. They have blocked all the approaches to market towns and levied tolls on all wishing to pass whether they were involved in the actual dispute or not.

If Government fails to function, the farmers may have to take steps to protect themselves, and a bitter class-war may be precipitated. In any case, farmers and labourers will be the chief

contending factions of the future. The main struggle will be over the re-division of land. To the average Irishman political freedom has implied a reign of plenty. The only tangible plenty in Ireland is the land, but when the area available is divided among the number of claimants the result will not yield economic holdings. It would tax the wisdom of Solomon himself to distribute what little there is to spare without grave unpopularity and probable bloodshed. Disquieting, however, as the outlook is, there would appear to be less danger from the bolshevism of labour than from the selfishness of the farmer. Mr. Johnson, the leader of the Labour Party in the Dáil, recently showed marked courage in supporting the Government on the enforcement of capital punishment for rebels. This is one of the most hopeful signs for some time past. The labour leaders may preach confiscation, but it is by no means certain that the rank and file will follow. Labour has to work to live, and many will prefer certain employment, even at poor wages, to the wild, uncertain benefits of revolution. But the farmer-he owns the land, and his capital and enterprise should be the source of the country's wealth. It is from his class that the aristocracy and leaders of the future must come. If he is reactionary the country cannot rise out of the mire. There are as yet faint signs that he realises his great responsibility.

The psychology of these two groups of farmer and labourer has been dwelt upon at some length because in a democratic government they will really determine the destinies of the country. Round them the old battle of the haves' and the 'have nots will be fought. At present Labour has seventeen seats in the Dáil, the farmers six. This is not an indication of their relative strengths when things become more settled. At the moment the labour organization is far superior, and at the last election Labour put forward many more candidates. For some years to come while Ireland is sowing her wild oats it seems that Labour may become a dominating feature in Irish politics. Having nothing to lose the party will offer any and every inducement to get the support of the small farmers, and no doubt will succeed. On the other hand, the farmers will get the support of the commercial classes and Protestant minorities, which will in some degree make up for their indifference and defective organization. Statistics indicate that the numbers in each camp VOL. 237. NO. 483.

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are nearly equal, but nothing short of actual experience can determine their relative political strengths.

The Roman Catholic Church has always taken a prominent part in all political movements in Ireland. In the past she has on the whole exercised a restraining influence and emerged without loss of prestige. In the present case she has burnt her fingers badly. Her behaviour was no doubt actuated by her traditional hatred of England and not by moral values. In the early days many of the younger clergy were actively mixed up with Sinn Fein. The older men for the most part held aloof and the Vatican remained discreetly on the fence. Later on the whole force of the Church was organized against conscription. This was the parting of the ways, and the action of the Church in this matter has steadily weakened her power ever since. She taught her people to flout legal authority, and the same people have now learnt to flout her moral authority. She seemed to think she could tamper with one part of the social structure without affecting the stability of the whole. Now that it is too late she has discovered her mistake. The young men and girls of Ireland refuse to take what they call their politics from their priest. They claim for politics a separate code of morals from family, social or economic life-a code over which the canons of the Church have no control. It is but a very short step further to complete moral abnegation and this is the stage many of the rising generation have now reached. The Roman Church is now making strenuous attempts to retrieve the situation-but it is too late. Mary McSwiney was quite prepared to dispense with the ministrations of the Church if she could plunge her unfortunate country still deeper into anguish and confusion. It was always hoped that, as in Canada, so in Ireland, the power of the Church would prove a bulwark against wild revolutionaries. Priests up and down the land now shrug their shoulders and woefully admit that they cannot stop the rot.

Groping for something tangible in this ever-shifting Irish quagmire, finance alone suggests a firm ground for argument and forecast. But here also the task is difficult. In the first place public accounts are never easy to understand; and in the second place both receipts and expenditure are affected by the abnormal conditions. First of all with regard to expenditure. Mr. Cosgrave, who combines the two offices of President and Minister of Finance,

has stated that the total sum required this year would be 'only ' a little short of £40,000,000.' This total includes a sum of £10,000,000 as a payment on account for war compensation, leaving, in the Minister's words, £30,000,000 to defray the 'ordinary cost of government.' The total expenditure on Irish services in 1920-21, before the separation of Ulster, was about £33,000,000. In the Government of Ireland Act of 1920 it was proposed to adjust the Imperial contributions of Southern Ireland and Ulster in the proportion of 56% to 44% respectively. It will be simpler to take the proportion of 60 to 40, both as regards revenue and expenditure. That is just as likely to be correct as the more elaborate proportion proposed in the Act, which was arrived at on very slender data. On this basis the cost of Southern Ireland services in 1920-21, including net loss on Post Office, was £19,800,000. Southern Ireland as a Free State will therefore cost in 1922-23, exclusive of war compensation, somewhere about eleven millions more than she did in 1920-21 under the Union. Yet a little more than a year ago, Mr. Collins held out the prospect of a much reduced income-tax as an inducement to Ulster to join in forming an All-Ireland Parliament.

Can the revenues of Southern Ireland possibly suffice to cover this expenditure of £30,000,000, apart altogether from the £10,000,000 or more due for war compensation? The three main items of Irish revenue are Customs, Excise and Income Tax. That Customs will decline as a consequence of the state of the country is almost inevitable. On the other hand, Excise may yield more. The brewers themselves say that the liquor trade continues to flourish in an amazing manner in spite of the country's misfortunes. Drink, indeed, may be the salvation of Southern Irish finance. If the Republicans waged war against drink they would embarrass the Government just as much, and discredit themselves far less, than they do by their present methods. But there will certainly be a big reduction in the yield of the Income Tax. The landlords can pay none, for no agricultural rents are being paid. The farmers can pay little or no income tax because the agricultural depression has wiped away their profits. Furthermore, may of the former residents in Ireland who used to draw incomes from foreign investments have now left Ireland and their incomes are no longer assessable for the benefit of the Irish exchequer.

Taking account of all the factors, the utmost probable

revenue for 1922-23 is about £20,000,000. If this forecast is correct, Mr. Cosgrave will be faced with a deficit of about £10,000,000 on ordinary expenditure, quite apart from the further £10,000,000 due as an instalment of war compensation charges. To balance this year's budget there must be borrowing; but who is going to lend?

If the general position does not soon improve, national bankruptcy is certain. When the election took place, and a strong indication was given that the people supported the Treaty, the Provisional Government thought the time had arrived to prove its strength. A mutinous section of the army had seized and fortified the Four Courts. Next to the Customs House, which was burnt by Collins and his party when out of power, the Four Courts was the finest building in Dublin. The Free State Government decided to expel the invaders. After a faint-hearted resistance, those of the garrison who had not slipped through the investing line, surrendered; but before doing so they set fire to the building and destroyed all the priceless records and historical documents it contained. The rebels, or Irregulars as they are commonly called, seized other buildings, strangely enough always owned by reputed loyalists, which in turn shared the same fate; and so the process of destruction has continued till to-day. Roads, bridges, railways, hotels, public offices, country houses, have all suffered. Nothing has been respected so long as its destruction served to embarrass the Government. Irregular leaders have openly boasted that they would prefer to be ruled by British bayonets than by the Free State Government.

As a piece of abstract political reasoning it might be expected that a clearly expressed verdict at the polls would so strengthen the Government and rally public opinion, that order would have been rapidly restored. But here lies the fallacy of political doctrine. People are swayed, not by political theory, but by habit and tradition. A people like the Irish, whose political programme has always been destructive, whose methods have so often been unconstitutional, is not suddenly, because of some paper treaty, going to respect the popular vote. In a democracy government is based on the people themselves, and unless they possess certain civic qualities, there can be no effective government. Ireland at present is in that primitive state where public opinion submits to murder but condemns execution. Recently when four