WITH CHAPTERS ON THE FUTURE WHEAT SUPPLY OF THE UNITED THE HON. JOHN HYDE, CHIEF STATISTICIAN IN THE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, WASHINGTON NEW YORK G. P. PUTNAM'S SONS LONDON JOHN MURRAY, ALBEMARLE STREET Reclass. 9-26-29 M.V.P PREFACE THE present volume arises out of the comments and criticisms provoked by the Address I delivered before the Members of the British Association in September, 1898. There were difficulties in the presentation of my subject. Limited to little more than an hour, I was compelled, from consideration to my audience, to deal with the results of study rather than with details. leading to such results. And constrained by respect for my responsible position to treat the matter soberly and without exag geration, it was impossible for me to do more than barely outline the serious peril awaiting wheat-eaters who contentedly pursue the present wasteful system of cultivation. My remarks took the form of a warning rather than a prophecy. To put the matter briefly, I stated that under present conditions of heedless culture, a scarcity of wheat is within appreciable distance; that wheat-growing land all over the world is becoming exhausted, and that at some future time—in my opinion not far distant -no available wheat land will be left. But I also pointed out that Nature's resources, properly utilised, are ample. I urged that, instead of being satisfied with an average world-yield of 12.7 bushels an acre, a moderate dressing of chemical manure would pull up the average to 20 bushels-thus postponing the day of dearth "to so distant a period that we and our sons and grandsons may legitimately live without undue solicitude for the future." un It was far from my intention to create a sensation, or to indulge in a "cosmic scare." After considerable study, I placed before the public hard and formidable facts. I have been assailed with criticism favourable, abusive, suggestive—but, having pondered disputed points, I cannot in any material degree modify my estimates of the future producing capacity of the wheat fields of the globe. In preparing this volume, I have en deavoured to give in greater fulness the data on which my conclusions are based. The actual and potential wheat-producing capacity of the United States is—and will be for years to come-the dominant factor in the world's bread supply. I therefore give prominence to criticisms launched against me in refutation of the intrinsic part of my argument. I have had invaluable assistance from Mr. Wood Davis of Peotone, Kansas, a wheat grower and statistician of recognised authority. Mr. Davis appears to be the sole person who deals with the problem in a manner to determine such essential factors as average acre yields for long periods, unit requirements for each of the primary food staples of the temperate zones, and the ratios existing during different recent periods between the consuming populations and the acres employed in the production of each of the primary food staples. Mr. Davis has contributed to this volume a chapter in which he goes over the whole ground, and practically corroborates all my state ments. |