the evident sense of genuine reprobation of what had occurred on the part of a large section of the Liberal party, before which even Ministers had to change their course. But the mood seems to have been transient. On July 1 Sir Rufus Isaacs and Mr Lloyd George were banqueted at the National Liberal Club; and the latter let himself go in a speech in which he denounced his critics as hungry humbugs steeped in smugness and self-righteousness,' described himself as persecuted for endeavouring to 'lift the poor out of the mire and the needy out of the dung-hill,' as another Saint Sebastian, a martyr in a campaign of calumny, which his respect for the traditions of the House of Commons forbade him to answer, and concluded with a confident expression of hope that from the prostrate form of the hideous Marconi monster which his friends had slaughtered, there would come, like the honey from Samson's lion, something to sweeten the lives of millions. For sheer effrontery this performance formed a worthy pendant to the Falconer report, and more than justified the refusal of the Unionist Party to accept the expressions of regret made in the House of Commons as in any sense adequate. On July 2 the majority on the Committee, on learning that Mr Samuel had given up any intention of attempting to enforce the agreement with the Marconi Company, suddenly and without notice sprang a resolution on the Committee winding up its proceedings, and thus leaving unfulfilled the task originally assigned to it of reporting on the manner in which that agreement was negotiated and completed, as well as closing the door on all further investigation. The Marconi Committee died, as it had lived, a striking example of the unfitness of a Parliamentary Select Committee, in the existing state of the party system, to enquire into any subject in connexion with which party interests are affected.

Art. 14.-EASTERN PROBLEMS AND BRITISH IN

TERESTS.

CONFUSION is the keynote of the present international situation. Not only the future but the present is veiled by dense clouds. There is not a statesman in Europe who knows what the day may bring forth, or who can picture to himself how the differences which divide the Balkan Allies will ultimately be settled. Unable to compose their quarrels among themselves, they were unwilling to submit them to arbitration without first binding the umpire to become a partisan. Each side wished to impose its own cherished solution upon the tribunal. From the ensuing deadlock a conflict between Servia and Greece on the one hand and Bulgaria on the other seemed the only issue. It was long expected by most politicians and had been discounted on many Exchanges. But, although reason discerned the symptoms, diagnosed the evil and foresaw the outcome, political instinct rejected the conclusion as preposterous. For an armed collision, whatever its military issue, would further the political interests of none of the parties concerned, and must prove baleful to the belligerents and mischievous to neutral States. And on these and kindred grounds it was somewhat hastily regarded as intrinsically improbable. Roumania's unexpected announcement that she would not remain inactive if hostilities broke out, was construed as tending to bear out this view. For, as her neutrality could be secured only at the cost of a heavy preliminary sacrifice to one of the belligerents, this declaration would, it was assumed, act upon the peace-breaker as a deterrent. And it was Bulgaria who appeared most disposed to break the peace.

Now Roumania's intervention offers a characteristic illustration of the kind of unforeseen events which may at any moment transform the situation and modify the outlook. This alteration of tack may be a mere temporary deviation from a straight line of policy extending over thirty years, or an entirely fresh departure; in either case it implies a change of which even the nature and extent, to say nothing of the consequences, cannot yet be gauged. Roumania, it is surmised by many, has been moved by Russia to allow herself to be used as an

instrument for the prevention of war; Russia herself having first exhausted all the means of influencing Bulgaria which it was open to her to employ. And this conjecture, which is plausible, may be partially correct. It is certain that the Tsar's Ministers had played their last card a few hours before Roumania roused herself to take a momentous step in the same direction. M. Sazonoff had despatched a pressing message to Dr Daneff urging him in moving terms to come to St Petersburg and submit his country's case to the tribunal of the Emperor. And that was the Russian's Minister's last word. Before it could elicit an elusive reply, which would have offended the Tsardom and let loose the dogs of war in the Balkans, Prince Ghika, King Carol's Minister in Bucharest, disclosed to Dr Daneff the intention of his Government to mobilise so soon as the first overt act of war between Servia and Bulgaria became known.

But the theory of Roumania's suddenly conceived friendship for the Tsardom offers at most a partial explanation of a far-reaching act which has given a fresh turn to the political kaleidoscope. It assumes that Roumania's part in European politics is that of an instrument-at most, of an auxiliary. But to those who are personally acquainted with the statesmen of Bucharest, the pursuit of patriotic aims as the mainspring of their action appears to come much nearer the mark. King Carol's realm holds the highest rank among the lesser states of south-eastern Europe in territory, population, and revenue. It has a noteworthy part to play in the cultural evolution of the East, and is apparently qualified to play it. Its statesmen have given proof of solid qualities, and are capable of taking long views. Now Roumania considers that she has been unfairly dealt with by Bulgaria, and her most influential leaders bitterly resent the marked absence of common courtesy with which they allege they were treated by Bulgaria's present Premier, Dr Daneff. The wounds, thus inflicted, rankle; and now that fortune has put the Roumanian Government in a position of advantage, it intends to utilise the opportunity to the fullest extent, not in behalf of Russia or for the discomfiture of Austria-Hungary, but for the well-being of the Roumanian nation.

To Bulgaria and Roumania important parts were

assigned in Austria-Hungary's self-denying scheme for the reorganisation of the Balkans. These two nations were to embody the steady conservative elements of the Orient; they were to present a formidable counterpoise to the restlessness of the giddy Serbs and Greeks. For their aptitude for these functions history and tradition offered a seemingly solid guarantee. And at first both sides fell in with the arrangement. But this preestablished harmony was turned to discord in London by Dr Daneff at the moment when victorious Bulgaria deemed herself the hub of the universe, and that active statesman became her prophet and guide. Deputed to come to terms with Roumanian diplomacy on the vexed question of the cession of a strip of the Dobrudja, he seems to have fallen into the capital error of thinking that a negotiator can sit down at the green table with empty hands, and dispense even with honeyed words. Austria-Hungary had been confidently looked to by King Carol and his advisers for something more than moral sympathy in this diplomatic encounter. She was expected to espouse Roumania's cause and to obtain that rectification of its frontiers which had for a generation been yearned for as at once a military precaution against threatened Bulgarian aggression and a political bond of union with the Bulgarian people.

But Austria-Hungary's hands were not free. They were caught in the meshes of the net which holds together the integral elements of the Dual State. Count Berchtold could not, therefore, efficaciously favour Roumania's demands without forfeiting Bulgaria's allegiance. And, as he had reserved the chief part in the cast of the Balkan drama for the rising Slav State, he shrank from incurring the risk. This calculation may come as a surprise to many. But it was nowise fanciful. King Ferdinand's people are often regarded as Slav only in name, and it is admitted on all hands that they are anything but Slav in temperament. Bulgaria's sympathies move in the direction of anticipated material advantage. In the shaping of her action sentiment has no part; interest alone is decisive. This is well illustrated by her veering policy. Her next aim, the restoration of the ancient Tsardom with its centre on the Golden Horn, sets up a barrier between her and Russia. To accomplish

her lofty' mission' and establish herself on the shores of the Bosphorus, she has need of the good offices of one or other of the two great rival Empires; and, as the Hapsburg State alone can contemplate without dismay the transfer of King Ferdinand's capital from Sofia to Constantinople, it behoves Bulgaria to keep in the good graces of AustriaHungary. That feat achieved, she can at will return to Russia as the prodigal and repentant daughter, sure of a cordial welcome. Aware that Bulgaria's co-operation could be had only on these terms, the Vienna Foreign Office confined its plea for Roumania to a eulogy of her exemplary conduct and a fervent hope that Bulgaria would act generously by her. As pressure was not attempted, the practical outcome was nil. In Bucharest disappointment was intense; and protests waxed loud against the thirty-five years' policy, of which disillusion was the most palpable and durable result.

Such a mood of despondency and impotent wrath is the tempter's opportunity. Russia's discreet advances to Roumania, made, as it chanced, while this fit of despair was on, seemed to be instigated by friendship and were characterised by tact. No wonder they were not repelled. Very soon 'correctness' of official intercourse between St Petersburg and Bucharest was superseded by cordiality; and when, at last, it was decided that the Bulgaro-Roumanian dispute should be referred to arbitration, the statesmen of Bucharest chose St Petersburg as the place, and M. Sazonoff as the president of the International Tribunal. That was the first outward token of an intention on the part of King Carol's Government to vary the lines on which it had so long been transacting the nation's foreign business. And in the Tsardom this was noted, understood, and appreciated. France and Russia at once constituted themselves the champions of their new client, and ended by restoring to her all that could still be saved after the lost opportunity.

At the time the deliberations of the ambassadors in the Russian capital were kept secret, but since then certain salient incidents have become the common property of an inner circle which was not, therefore, greatly surprised at Roumania's recent declaration that she would intervene if Bulgaria went to war with Servia. Roumania now knows to whom she is beholden for such Vol. 219.-No. 436.

T