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his own chance. Knowing, as every a prior understanding among the powers other well-informed person in the Far as to their Far Eastern policies. Plainly, East knew, that Semenoff and Ungern then, every move toward disarmament were third-rate adventurers, with never must be determined chiefly by what a chance of wrecking the Chita Govern- foreign investors think of the drift in ment, and that they were merely being China. What must their thoughts be? used by a small clique of Japanese What if Chang has his way? Then militarists as a means of bringing pres- Japan will become a colossal contisure to bear upon the Far Eastern Re nental power as well as a maritime one. public for the gaining of concessions, Her protectorate will extend first over Chang nobly volunteered to drive the Manchuria and Mongolia; next over invaders off Chinese soil. It would cost Shantung; then probably over Kansu, Peking seven to ten millions, of course, whose tuchun is a friend of Chang, inbut the job would be done with neat- stalled by Chang's cunning. The Japness and dispatch. Unhappy Hsu ad- anese militarist party will have justivanced three millions, then two more. fied its expensive policy. The price of Chang posted bulletins of his plans and conquest will be collected from the progress. Months passed, and not a conquered, and Japan's finances will soldier moved. Chang had to wait till be greatly strengthened. The present Japan was through with Semenoff. monopolistic policy of Japan, which has Finally, when the Japanese had kicked just been extended still further in Semenoff out, and Ungern, his under- Korea, will swiftly drive foreign invesling, had not even a broken reed to lean tors out. on, and the Living Buddha had wan- What if Sun Yat-sen prevails? Sun dered back into the windy solitudes, is an intense nationalist, aglow with China's great defender marshaleda mere the desire to free China from the alien. handful of braves. Perhaps some of them He hates Japan most, America least. are arriving in Urga now; and Chinese In common with millions of his counhistory will not run true to form unless, trymen, he believes that the foreigner once in Urga, they stay there as long as has caused most of China's woes, and Chang finds backing for his Mongol that expelling the money and the poempire. They may be there when the litical influence of all foreigners is the second Jenghiz Khan enters in triumph, first step toward national regeneration. escorted by a purely honorary Japanese Given full power, Sun would cancel or army. Who knows? Mad dreams do heavilyamend every foreign concession, come true. And the truth itself is often put a quick end to extraterritoriality, madness.

restore the treaty ports to China, and

finance the country from within. All of IV

which would not encourage outsiders to What has all this to do with disarma- drop money in Chinese ventures. . ment? Well, each tendency in China's What if provincial autonomy arrives? chaos affects every foreign investor The eighteen new nations would soon there. Each will do so much more after join in one or two loose confederations, a disarmament programme, however but these latter would not hamper the modest, has been adopted. Now, the new military kings. Forthwith, the British investor in China largely shapes status of innumerable concessions would British policy toward China; and so become dubious, for the central governtoo with the American and Japanese. ment which had granted them would Furthermore, disarmament hangs upon

have ceased. All would depend upon the good will, the cupidity, or the fear question. What if the Washington of the local tuchun. It would be Cen- Conference, moved by lofty idealism, tral Europe and the Balkans over whatever that may mean,

were to again, but poisoned with mediævalism. persuade the three dominant naval Civil wars, intrigues, an endless un- powers to scrap, let us say, one half of stable balancing of petty powers, and their fleets, or to cease new construcinterminable uncertainty as to to-mor

tion? How would that noble act affect row would

sap

the courage of the bold- Chang, Sun, and provincial autonomy? est foreign investor and leave the field And how, in turn, the American, Britopen only to the adventurer. Probably ish, and Japanese investors in China? the treaty ports would thrive, for even The answer is too easy. And it gives the dullest war lord realizes that they us a first clear glimpse of the obstacles are the life of their provinces. But all to disarmament. expansion beyond their environs would Cut the British and American fleets halt.

one half, whether by scrapping battleTo all this, one exception. Japan ships or by suspending new construcwould profit richly by the disintegra- tion, and you leave the coast clear for tion. She would sign treaties with the Chang and his Japanese friends to annew northern kingdoms, paying gladly nex Mongolia and Shantung. They can the tuchuns' price. The technique fol- and will double their speed of conquest lowed in olden days by the British in on the day Anglo-Saxon sea-power dealing with the native states of India dwindles. How so? Geography tells the would be repeated, with modern varia- whole story. From Japan's huge naval tions and embellishments. And a quar- port, Nagasaki, to the mainland of ter-century would see Japan the master Asia is less than 150 miles an easy of the continent.

night's run for transports and battle Here are the three outstanding pos- ships. The waters are dotted with sibilities in China, in their baldest islands which, fortified or used as bases form. Each is little more than a possi- for destroyers and submarines, make bility, as matters now stand. Chang the passage fairly safe, even under will not have his way as sweetly as he heavy attack. Furthermore, the Japanhopes; for his countrymen understand ese can mass in Korea and Manchuria him, and the Japanese behind him real- millions of soldiers, if need be, long beize the danger of quick and open im- fore a foreign power could effectively perialism. Sun's foes are many and interfere. Military railways, waremighty, while his purse is lean. And houses, terminals, and other basic provincial autonomy is suspect because necessities of war, are already installed too many militarists are shouting for it, in vital points. And the farmers of while clear thinkers understand that Manchuria can now supply food for a China must present a united front sizable army. To all of which facts we against Japan, or go under. Over and need add but one, unsuspected by most above all these restraints tower the Americans, perhaps, but recognized by battleships that ride in the harbors all naval experts: neither the British of Manila, Shanghai, and Hong Kong. nor the American fleet of to-day is These vessels are singularly unpopular strong enough to carry on a modern among river pirates, opium smugglers, war anywhere in the Far East, chiefly poppy farmers, white slavers, bandit because of the abnormally long and chieftains, and exploiters white and weak line of supplies and the distance yellow. All of which suggests a leading from primary bases.

The militarist party of Japan would and American navies negligible, Japan rejoice at an international slashing of might declare war on a democratic naval budgets, provided nothing was China, on the ridiculous pretext that done to cut army expenditures and Sun is Bolshevist, precisely as it attacked policies. Winning that, they will win the Maritime Provinces of Siberia. As Asia at a fraction of the price they had for Sun himself, he would doubtless upexpected to pay.

root British and American concessionAfter disarmament, Chang may turn naires at a great rate, if not menaced the trick for Japan in three ways. He by their battleships. And in this he may allow her militarists to trump up would be aided by the fast-mounting a pretext for war, and he will offer only hatred of the foreigner, among even nominal resistance. Should Sun and the common folk of China. his constitutionalists sweep the coun- Were disarmament to be followed by try, Chang might resort to this proce provincial autonomy, it is doubtful dure; otherwise not. He will find it whether even the lives of foreigners simpler to sell off the assets of China, as would be safe in most regions. The the Peking Government grows more World War shattered the white man's and more desperate for funds; and thus, prestige and revealed the infamy of the in a few years, Japanese buyers will own Japanese militarists. China now folManchu-Mongolia by the highly re- lows Japan and India in her distrust of spectable right of purchase. Should European civilization. The thoughts of this prove too slow, a third method re- Gandhi, the Hindu saint, and the poet mains. Chang may come out for pro- Tagore are blazing up the dense valleys. vincial autonomy, after the battleships The outcry against the Consortium, the have vanished. He may retain sundry thirty-million-dollar loan from native wise men, yea, even college professors, bankers to the Peking Government, to demonstrate to a dubious world that last summer, and, above all, the wild this is China's one true salvation. The enthusiasm in the south over Sun's exwise men will cite the famous doctrine treme nationalism, are a few gusts that of self-determination. And they will scurry ahead of the great storm which make out an extraordinarily strong must some day break, once the recase; for, in the long run, provincial straint of naval force is withdrawn. autonomy may really be the best solu- Everybody who knows China seems to tion. Chang of Mukden will secede agree that, in the chaos following the from Chang of Peking. The new em- creation of eighteen kingdoms, the pire of the north will straightway enter foreign devils would suffer first and into close alliance with Japan. And all foremost. will be over but the banzai.

V Suppose finally that, after naval disarmament, Sun Yat-sen wins. What Thus far we have noted only internal then? It is hazardous to make more tendencies in China. Is there not hope than two broad conjectures, as the that the prospect will brighten when outcome of a constitutionalist victory we consider other possibilities? May must be highly complex. This much is not Japan, reassured by Anglo-Saxon sure, though: the restored Republic disarmament, forsake her militant could not block Japan's expansion in ways in Asia? And if China, no longer Manchuria and Mongolia, as it lacks threatened by her neighbor, continues railroads, finance, technical staffs, and chaotic, may not the powers join to put general organization. And, with British her house in order, under some benev

olent scheme of international control?

per, timber, cotton, and all the other Alas for these hopes! The militarist ingredients of modern security and party is still unbroken at Tokyo, and comfort. She will seek these even as its counsel will prevail at the Washing- Great Britain, France, and the United ton Conference, where it will confound States do to-day. Failing to get them, its adversaries with an argument bor- she must join the ranks of pauper Italy rowed from the very advocates of dis- and Greece. Economic expansion on a armament. Japan can defend her Asi- vast scale, or a surrender of national atic policy with the greatest lesson of power — there is no third course! the World War. Her militarists can ap- Can any American or Briton soberly peal to Mr. Frank I. Cobb's vigorous advise the Japanese delegates that they and accurate statement of it, in the should show true moral grandeur by August Atlantic:

choosing the second alternative? And, ‘Nations that are rich are not de- if you once grant the right of economic fenseless. They contain in themselves expansion, where else would you have all the elements of defense. They may Japan expand, if not due west? have been defenseless in times when war We come now to the proposed interwas the exclusive business of profes- national control of China, which some sional soldiers, but all that has been observers feel would at once restore changed. The elements of national de order there and hold the Tokyo milifense are now the sum total of all the tarists in check. Here is no place to economic resources of the country plus debate the broader merits of the plan. all the man-power.

We have only to note its relation to dis‘Economic resources can be easily armament, which is as clear as sunand quickly translated into military shine. So sincerely do the Chinese hate resources; and a sound economic sys- foreign domination, that internationtem is the essential element in

any ex- al management could succeed only if tensive military undertaking.'

backed up by a large army and navy. Mr. Cobb correctly used this as an The day the first alien manager entered argument for America's disarming. Peking, Sun Yat-sen's strength would Japanese war lords can use it to dem- be doubled. To the 1,700,000 troops of onstrate Japan's need of dominating the tuchuns would be added the might Manchuria and Mongolia, if not also a of armed mobs and bandits innumerslice of Siberia. They can thus prove able; and we should be committed to a that their fatherland cannot even de- new benevolent militarism for years to fend itself unless it acquires immense economic resources. To-day their coun- This brings us to the one obstacle to try is perilously poor in the materials world peace which lies wholly within that make for strength. Her people no our own gates. We have most of the longer feed themselves, but import vast world's gold, most of the free capiquantities of rice and millet. Most of tal, immense factories, and millions her peasants make money only from of skilled workers. The unbalance of silkworm culture. Unhappily, silk is a trade has ruined our foreign trade with luxury whose value fluctuates widely, Europe; our exports and imports de and imitations made from cotton al clined 50 per cent in the first seven ready threaten its market. So a nation months of this year; Germany is selling whose natural resources are mostly textiles 60 per cent cheaper than we silkworms hangs by a thread. To sur- can; German mills are underbidding vive, Japan must own coal, iron, cop- Pittsburgh in our domestic steel market; our automobile factories are run- must have his own country protect ning at 57 per cent capacity; and five him with as much force as is necessary, million workers are idle, as winter comes or else he must stay out of Asia. As for on. Meanwhile, taxes refuse to shrink, the manufacturer and the exporter, he and battleships are being built, while is vexed by this same dilemma and two our farmers see their minute profits de- further annoyances. He must undervoured by abnormal freight-rates and sell the British, Germans, and Japanour builders touch only the most urgent ese in China; and this he cannot do now contracts. There is but one escape from save in a few monopolistic lines, such the deadly combination of war-debts, as cheap automobiles and sewing maan over-expanded factory system, and chines. And even when he can meet a money glut. New markets must be their prices, he cannot reap their proftapped quickly, new consumers found, its, because Great Britain and Japan new desires created. But where and have exempted their nationals doing how?

come.

business in China from all income taxes Not in Europe, for Europeans are and excess-profits taxes on their China finding it hard enough to fill their trade. But these worries pale beside stomachs; and they can undersell us at the chaos in China. almost every point. Not in Russia, This chaos creates for the Republican where none has a dollar save for black party a terrible dilemma. Champion of bread. Not in South America, whose the full dinner-pail, roaring factories, buying power is probably less than that and hundred-per-cent dividends, — all of Texas, in spite of the large claims of excellent ideals! — it has committed sundry bank presidents whose know- itself heart and soul to the utmost stimledge of that continent and its people ulation of foreign trade and foreign appears to have been derived from investments. Champion of general prosgrammar-school geographies and smok- perity, it aims to reduce the cost of living-room tales. Where, then? There ing, especially taxes, which are nine remains only the Far East. China and tenths military. The first goal demands Siberia can absorb billions of capital, a navy. The second demands the abolimuch of which, as Mr. T. W. Lamont tion of navies. And neither a navy nor remarked, must eventually earn a thou- an abolished one will guarantee success sand per cent. They can also consume in the Far East! billions' worth of manufactures; and,

Is it to be marveled at that some as their standards of living rise, these Republicans have lost interest in the billions will become tens of billions. To Disarmament Conference, while others those lands, then, our financiers and are losing sleep over it? manufacturers must look for the only foreign trade that can restore our eco

VI nomic balance appreciably. Their logic is impeccable, granting the premise that Disarm and leave Asia to the Asiwe must look abroad for new markets. atics, or else run Asia and a huge fleet.

But how dares any American finan- This, when all is said and done, is the cier invest millions in such chaos, where alternative that delays disarmament. governments totter, intriguers plot new It may be dodged for a while, but it canempires, and war lords revel in civil not be evaded. It will not help to emit strife? Neither Peking nor Canton can hypocritical shrieks over the wicked protect him, and Tokyo will not. His Japanese, whose imitation of our politialternatives, then, are clear: either he cal ways is the sincerest flattery. Nor

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